The Issue of Uncertainty in Economics
نویسنده
چکیده
The only uses of this work permitted are private study or research. To teach how to live without certainty, and yet without being paralysed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing that philosophy, in our age, can still do for those who study it.
منابع مشابه
Oil Price Uncertainty in the Iranian Economy
T he relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. In this research, by using a multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR, we try to investigate direct effects of uncertainty of oil price on macroeconomics of Iran by using annually data from 1965 to 2013.Results show that uncertainty about oil prices had a negative a...
متن کاملInvestigating the Effect of Variations in Irrigation Water Price on Cropping Pattern and Gross Margin under Uncertainty (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi)
Water shortage crisis is an issue that has led to drastic changes in different agricultural policies, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Uncertainty in the amount of resources, e.g. water, used for agricultural production entails risk for farmers' income and cropping pattern changes. In the present study, the robust optimization model was used for optimal allocation of arable lands of Khor...
متن کاملGovernment and Central Bank Interaction under Uncertainty: A Differential Games Approach
Abstract Today, debt stabilization in an uncertain environment is an important issue. In particular, the question how fiscal and monetary authorities should deal with this uncertainty is of much importance. Especially for some developing countries such as Iran, in which on average 60 percent of government revenues comes from oil, and consequently uncertainty about oil prices has a large effec...
متن کاملStock Market Uncertainty and the Analysis of Monetary Policy shock
Policy makers impose policies to improve economy circumstance in order to achieve economic goals. However, the consequence of these policies along with the intended goals will also influence expectations, fluctuations, etc., and cause changes in levels of uncertainty. The important role of the stock market in the economy, makes it important to examine its uncertainty and its interaction with mo...
متن کاملThe Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Import with TARCH Approach
This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the Iran’s import trade. The exchange rate uncertainty series were generated utilizing the TARCH model. This model analyzes the asymmetric effects. The analysis of uncertainty and asymmetry of the exchange rate shows significant TARCH effect on Iran’s exchange rates. The findings of the study indicate negative shocks (bad ne...
متن کاملIntegration of QFD, AHP, and LPP methods in supplier development problems under uncertainty
Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-driven approach, widely used to develop or process new product to maximize customer satisfaction. Last researches used linear physical programming (LPP) procedure to optimize QFD; however, QFD issue involved uncertainties, or fuzziness, which requires taking them into account for more realistic study. In this paper, a set of fuzzy data is used to ...
متن کامل